BSG On the subject of population...

[samvara]

maharetr and I got distracted after watching 2x17 and did us some maths to do with the likely population demographic of the Fleet and the minimum reproducing requirements for the future of the human race.

Based on some fairly simple assumptions we came up with the following:

Total possible child-bearing females (age 20 - 44): 11627
Subtract 'working women' (2,000)¹: 9627
To 'replace' we need how many babies per year: 705
Assume 50% infant mortality: 1409 women willing to become pregnant per year
Meaning that percentage of available women who have to be pregnant: 15%
ie: in 10 years 7,050 children of 0-10 years to be looked after.

To increase and allow for death of combatants - double 'replacement': 1409
Assume 50% infant mortality: 2819 women willing to become pregnant per year
Meaning that percentage of available women who have to be pregnant: 29%
ie: in 10 years 14,090 children of 0-10 years to be looked after.

This is clearly not going to be supported by a nuclear family structure - we think the Fleet will need to raise children using a creche model and they had better start having children right now or there will be an interesting patch in the future where there are almost no 15-25 years at all.

The demographic used was the Australian population as of 2000 but we removed a lot of the 0-10 years and added them evenly to the 20-30 years.


¹based on female population of Pegasus, Galactica and the Fleet.

Comments

Bean-counting...

[maharetr.livejournal.com]

2x01 Scattered: 47,875
2x02 Valley of Darkness: 47,874
2x03 Fragged: 47,862
2x04 Resistance: 47,861
2x05 The Farm: 47,857
2x06 Home, part 1: 47,858
2x07 Home, part 2: 47,855
2x08 Final Cut: 47,853
2x09 Flight of the Phoenix: 47,853
2x10 Pegasus: 49,605
2x11 Resurrection Ship, part 1: 49,604
2x12 Resurrection Ship, part 2: 49,604
2x13 Epiphanies: 49,598
2x14 Black Market: 49,597
2x15 Scar: 49,593
2x16 Sacrifice: 49,590
2x17 Captain's Hand: 49,590

The thing that I find a tad startling is that aside from the obvious addition of the Pegasus' crew etc, the numbers have not gone up at all. This makes me boggle, because I can't help thinking that if 17's events have been happening as quietly and routinely as they seem to be that they have to be having births. Are the writers just not noticing?

Numbers all found here (http://members.tripod.com/john_larocque/tns/archive.html)

Re: Bean-counting...

[maharetr.livejournal.com]

I tell a lie: over The Farm/Home part 1, we gain one. I suspect that this was Caprica-Sharon coming on board when Helo, Starbuck and Sharon return with the arrow.

[...]

Well, that made sense until I did some digging. Numbers say we loose four during Resistance and there were four civilians shot dead for throwing coffee during the supply debacle... and there was also the rather dramatic execution of Galactica-Sharon by Cally. So, counted by one hand but not by the other?

Re: Bean-counting...

[black-samvara.livejournal.com]

Need to count our own beans methinks.

Re: Bean-counting...

[black-samvara.livejournal.com]

This dude (http://members.cox.net/battlestar/reimagined.htm) estimates that 2x10 - Pegasus took us to about 100 days elapsed.

2x17 Captain's Hand: 49,590 is not the number displayed at the beginning of 2x17 - I think we should do some checking.

Hehe: next episode is called Downloaded.

Re: Bean-counting...

[maharetr.livejournal.com]

"We must download Downloaded!" (because I'm five, clearly)

I can bean-count...*checks downloads* from 2x08 to 2x16, if you like?

Re: Bean-counting...

[black-samvara.livejournal.com]

We must!

All good - I am suddenly very keen on knowing what, if anything, they are using for contraception.

Re: Bean-counting...

[maharetr.livejournal.com]

My versions of 8 and 9 were the cheap and tiny downloads that have had all the credits cut from them, but all the numbers from ep 10 to ep 16 match the site's figures exactly.

I don't have a copy of 17, but clearly the assertion of the site that there were no number changes between it and 16 is wrong wrong wrong. *g*